‘China holds the cards’: Why Putin’s visit to Beijing after Trump matters

As Vladimir Putin prepares to meet Xi Jinping in Beijing, analysts are highlighting a crucial aspect of this summit: China’s growing diplomatic influence. The back-to-back visits by Trump and now Putin underscore China’s positioning as a central player capable of engaging rival powers on its own terms.

The significance of these summits extends beyond the bilateral relationship between Russia and China. In recent years, Beijing has been consolidating its role at the center of an increasingly fragmented global order. While Western sanctions have brought Russia and the US together in a shared sense of grievance against Washington’s foreign policy, China has forged a separate partnership with Moscow.

China holds the cards in this triangle. By hosting the two visits, Beijing is flexing its diplomatic muscle, signaling to both Washington and Moscow that it will not be swayed by either side’s agenda. This display of neutrality – or rather, non-alignment – is a calculated move by China to position itself as an indispensable interlocutor in international affairs.

Cooperation between Russia and China is expected to deepen in the area of energy, with China seeking access to Russia’s resources at a discounted price and Moscow relying on Beijing for dual-use technologies critical to its drone production capabilities. This mutual dependence will likely lead to increased collaboration on joint projects.

Putin’s visit takes on more significance than just economic cooperation. With his domestic popularity dwindling and the Russian economy reeling from the aftermath of Ukraine, Putin is in a precarious position. His reliance on China for military support and economic aid has become increasingly evident, with analysts noting that Russia is now the junior partner in this relationship.

Analysts have long observed that “China has all the cards.” As Trump departed from Beijing last week, it was clear that little progress had been made on contentious issues like Taiwan and the US-Israel war on Iran. Putin, by extension, will also be coming to China with his hands outstretched.

The analysts’ refrain of a “multipolar world” suggests that both Russia and China are committed to a vision where dominant powers are curtailed. However, this rhetoric belies the reality on the ground. As Miron noted, China is positioning itself as a mediator, a neutral player in international affairs.

This new role for Beijing is not without its challenges. The ongoing US-Israel war on Iran has significant implications for global energy markets and economies, including China’s own. While Russia may benefit from the disruption in the short term, analysts agree that long-term stability matters to both countries.

The visit comes at a critical juncture, with tensions between Washington and Tehran remaining high. Analysts are wary of China pressuring Moscow towards any particular outcome on Ukraine. While China may advocate for peaceful negotiations, it will not wish to see Russia humiliated.

Putin’s visit to Beijing reflects the shifting global power dynamics at play. As China consolidates its role as an indispensable interlocutor, both Russia and the US are being forced to adapt to this new reality. The implications of this trend for international stability in the years to come remain to be seen.